People respond to policy, risks and changes in environmental quality. Coastal economic analysis – understanding and modeling behavioral responses created by changes in coastal policy and/or realization of risk - is needed to fully understand the effect that adaptation and mitigation measures have on resilience metrics.
The Oregon Coastal Futures (OCF) project will incorporate economic models of housing market responses to policy changes (e.g., Goal 18 modifications, tsunami hazard overlays) and the estimation of influential determinants of decision-making into our alternative futures work to accommodate complex community resilience metrics. Specifically, using the Envision modelling framework we will evaluate a range of alternative futures related to policy decisions and socioeconomic trends by integrating econometric models of coastal land markets. Envision allows for the representation of human decision-making in landscape simulations. The Envision “actors” make management decisions that reflect actor values (limiting tsunami damage) and incorporate feedbacks from landscape change and economic models (impacts of SLR, land value responses to policy changes).
The various econometric models aim to identify values individuals place on chronic and acute coastal risks and to maximize returns on infrastructure investments. Previous OCF projects identified the need for a full accounting of localized socio-economic costs and benefits of strategies that address both chronic and acute hazards concurrently. Results will increase understanding of the potential ecosystem services co-benefits from adaptation strategies related to natural and nature-based infrastructure (e.g., dune building and beach grass planting) versus traditional grey infrastructure approaches and allow us to examine tradeoffs between policy options.