What else has the OCF group done?

The Oregon Coastal Futures Project is funded by Oregon Sea Grant through their SEED to LEAF program (designed to support large-scale, cutting-edge, interdisciplinary research relevant to important marine or coastal issues). It draws on over four years of engagement with local stakeholders (decision-makers, outreach specialists, community leaders) in Tillamook County, OR and Grays Harbor, WA. At both locations, the Envisioning Coastal Futures approach was applied. This approach comprises of:

  • Co-production of coastal policies and resilience goals

  • Modeling of differing policies with chronic coastal hazards (flooding and erosion)

  • Exploration of trade-offs of different policies

  • Development of ideal scenarios/ pathways

  • (See more about the Grays Harbor project here , and the Tillamook project here.)

While successful, these projects identified gaps in previous studies. The current Oregon Coastal Futures Project, beyond expanding analysis to the entire Oregon Coast, has added several components that will enhance our understanding of the region’s vulnerabilities and inform future resilience planning.

  • Acute Hazards (earthquakes and tsunamis associated with the Cascadia Subduction Zone)

  • Econometric Models (housing value responses to hazard mitigation and factors leading to coastal land use change)

  • Socio-Economic Vulnerability (metrics that measure community equity and well-being; qualitative interviews and participatory mapping of community priorities and preparedness)

This project is operating on a three and a half year timescale and meets semi-annually with an Advisory Council to ensure that results answer community-defined questions and are usable by advocacy, government, and industry professionals. Project outputs include quantitative assessments of how different policies impact Oregon’s future coastlines. While the project will model many scenarios for the entire coast, more in-depth analyses and qualitative data collection will occur in the North Coast (e.g., Lincoln, Tillamook, and Clatsop Counties).

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