Scenarios


This project explores a variety of Alternative Future Scenarios that capture distinct strategies for managing Oregon coastal communities and understanding consequences of those strategies for achieving resilient communities. These scenarios incorporate both management and climate dimensions, and consider population growth and development patterns, acute and chronic hazards, economic drivers and impacts, and social dimensions including equity and differential impacts of different policy strategies. Descriptions of the different scenarios analyzed are provided below.

Policy Function Triggers Baseline Realign Protect Restore
BPS Construction Builds new Beach Protective Structures (BPS), e.g. RipRap, to harden the shoreline against erosion and flooding 1) Dune protects a building AND
2) Beach type is sandy dune-backed AND
3) 5yr Moving Avg of Impact Days/yr > threshhold (182.5 day/yr) OR Building is impacted by erosion (event erosion within 10m or 3 out of last 5 years 2yr avg event erosion contacts building)		   X
BPS Maintenance Rebuilds BPS's that are of insufficient height to perform their intended functions 1) BPS Protects a building AND
2) Hasn't been maintained in the past 3 years AND
3) The BPS was flooded 2 out of last 5 yrs		 X   X X
BPS Nourishment Replenish sand in from of BPS's that has been lost to erosion processes 1) BPS exists at the site AND
2) Hasn't been nourished in the last 5 years AND
3) Beach width is narrowing as a result of sea-level rise or erosion		 X   X
SPS Construction Build new Soft Protective Structures (SPS), e.g. Sand Dunes, to protect the shorline from erosion and flooding 1) Dune protects a building AND
2) Beach type is sandy dune-backed AND
3) 5yr Moving Avg of Impact Days/yr > threshhold (182.5 day/yr) OR Building is impacted by erosion (event erosion within 10m or 3 out of last 5 years 2yr avg event erosion contacts building)
 X
SPS Maintenance Adds sand volume to existing dunes to maintain their function 1) ? X
SPS Nourishment Replenish sand in from of SPS's that has been lost to erosion processes 1) 5yr Moving Avg of Impact Days/yr > threshhold (182.5 day/yr) AND
2) Easting Toe - eastingToeSPS >= 3  ?		 X
Construct on Safest Site Not currently used
Remove Buildings From Hazard Zone Removes buildings from Hazard Zones 1) Building in 100yr Flood Zone
2) Flooding frequency >= 1 out of 5 years		 X
Remove Infrastructure From Hazard Zone Removes critical infrastructure from Hazard Zones 1) Building in 100yr Flood Zone
2) Flooding frequency >= 1 out of 5 years		 X
Raise/Relocate to Safest Site Raise or move a structure to a new location within the same tax lot. Buildings:
1) Hasn't been previously raised or relocated AND
2) Flooded 1 out of last 5 years
If Site Elevation is below BFE+1m, RAISE the building
If Site Elevation is above BFE+1m, MOVE to safest site
If Previously Raised, then MOVE to safest site		 X X
Raise Infrastructure Raise critical infrastructure flooded 1 out of last 5 years X