Model Overview

Urban Demand (Lead: Christian Langpap)

This sub-model estimates daily water demand for IDUs where people live.  It uses slightly different methods to make estimates for IDUs within large cities (Portland metro, Eugene-Springfield, Salem-Keizer, Corvallis), smaller cities, and rural residential areas.  The sub-model calculates the quantity of water demanded for these areas as a function of water price, population, income, urban density, season, and commercial-industrial income shares.  The equations in this sub-model are based on the economics literature on urban water demand, as well as local information on water use and pricing.

Land Use Transitions, Land Rent, and Urban Expansion (Lead: Andrew Plantinga)

As a simulation runs, some locations in the valley transition into different land uses, which, in turn, affects water demand.  Land-use changes that occur in the sub-model are represented by probabilistic equations estimated with National Resources Inventory (NRI) data. The land-use sub-models incorporate the economic returns of each valley IDU for forest, developed, and agricultural uses. The value for each use is calculated and changes with time with IDU characteristics (population, household income, etc.).  The functions that estimate economic returns were derived from historical data for the Willamette Valley. An Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) expansion sub-model adds IDUs to UGBs when the fraction of developed land within the UGB exceeds a specified threshold. In general, IDUs are added to a UGB on the basis of adjacency, distance to the UGB centroid, and zoning.

Key Data Sources and Assumptions

Links to additional Documentation

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