Scenarios

Scenarios are a way to explore plausible options for a future of a place, and to increase understanding of the factors and interactions that affect the how that future may unfold.

For WW2100, a number of scenarios have been developed that include changes in exogenous and endogenous drivers. Exogenous drivers are forcings which are controlled by outside factors (for example a temperature increase determined by a global climate change model).  Endogenous drivers are forcings which can be controlled within the basin (for example changes in policies or management).  

 

NameClimate Population Wildfire Suppression UGB Expansion Reservoir Operations Urban Water PricingAgricultural Water Use
Reference Case - MIROC

(Ref)

link to a narrative description of the Reference Case
MIROC - middle range climate change; 5.5°C (10°F) increase in PNW annual mean temperatures over century county projections to 2050 from OEA (2011) with linear extrapolation to 2100; pop in 2010 = 2.41 M; 2100 = 5.37M suppression at historical levels; forest area burned per year increases three-fold over historical rates UGBs expand when 80% developed; growth of Portland Metro UGB confined to urban reserves through 2060rule curves implemented as of 2011; includes BiOp recommendations as of 2009 except selective withdrawal structure at Cougar 15 year increase in price (1.5%/yr) to cover infrastructure backlog, then prices held near constant in real terms for pop. size rate cannot exceed 1/80 cfs/acre; duty  cannot exceed 2.5 acre-feet/acre
Changes in Exogenous Drivers - Blue Scenarios
Low Climate Change - GFDL

(LowClim)
GFDL - low climate change; 1.5°C (3°F)  increase in PNW annual mean temp. over century same as Refsame as Ref; small decrease in burned area over centurysame as Ref same as Refsame as Ref same as Ref
High Climate Change - Hadley

(HighClim)
Hadley - high climate change; 7.6°C (14°F) increase in PNW annual mean temp. over centurysame as Ref same as Ref; burned area increases by a factor of nine over the centurysame as Ref same as Refsame as Ref same as Ref
High Population Growth

(HighPop)
same as Refpopulation growth rates within UGBs doubled relative to Ref; pop. in 2100 = 8.25M same as Ref same as Refsame as Ref same as Refsame as Ref
Changes in Endogenous Drivers (Policies and Institutions) - Red Scenarios
Upland Wildfire Suppression

(FireSuppress)
same as Refsame as Ref fire suppression efforts increase to hold area burned per year to historical ratessame as Ref same as Refsame as Ref same as Ref
Relaxed Urban Expansion

(UrbExpand)
same as Refsame as Ref same as RefUGBs expand when 70% developed; no urban reservessame as Refsame as Ref same as Ref
Early Reservoir Refill

(EarlyRefill)
same as Refsame as Ref same as Refsame as Ref maintains Ref rule curves but shifts spring fill "ramp" to two weeks earlier same as Refsame as Ref
Full Cost Urban Water Pricing

(FullCostUrb)
same as Refsame as Ref same as Refsame as Ref same as Ref 15 year increase in price to reach estimated long-run average cost (LRAC), which depends on pop. size; prices then continue at LRAC same as Ref
Lower Irrigation Rates & Duties

(LowIrrRates)
same as Refsame as Ref same as Refsame as Ref same as Refsame as Ref adjust rate/duty; details not yet determined




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